BEST ACTRESS

Andrew Dowd Helen Hunt, Gwenyth Paltrow, Reese Witherspoon—given Oscar’s enduring preference for dolled-up starlets, they might as well rename this category Young Female Celebrity We’d Most Like to Bang. If the horny old men of the Academy voted with their libidos instead of their heads or their hearts, Penelope Cruz would be the far-and-away front-runner here—never mind that, in Pedro Almodovar’s Volver, she’s as funny and engaging as she is radiantly sexy. And if Nicole Kidman can win this award with a ridiculous prosthetic nose slapped on her face, Cruz’s padded rear has to play to her advantage, right?

Josh Staman One would think. Lord knows I’d support her win (although I find myself leaning more towards Lá Dench, in this her cattiest performance to date) on the basis that this is likely the talented actress’ best shot at the gold. We’ve been wrong before; who would’ve thought that Hilary Swank would have two before Kate Winslet had one? Either way, every word parsed is a word wasted; this is Mirren’s year, and after two nominations, a glowing career behind her, and two of the most regal performances in years, who could begrudge her? Not I, not really. Yet, for all “The Performance of The Year!” citations, one would think there’d be a bit more vibrancy at play. There isn’t a minute in The Queen with stakes as high as Judi Dench’ tub-side inner-monologue about the post-menopausal yearnings of her loins.

AD Actually, that’s putting it lightly. I don’t begrudge Mirren her inevitable Oscar either—she’s solid and understated, a veteran thesp worthy of her dues—but I am troubled by the unanimous praise she’s received this awards season, as if hers was the only female performance of 2006 worth a hot damn. Never mind Cruz and Dench: what of unsung non-contenders like Shareeka Epps, Laura Dern, or Maggie Gyllenhaal, who, for my money, delivered the real performance of the year in Sherrybaby? Forget it, I’m dreaming aloud. Better Mirren than a phoning-it-in Winslet. Just wondering: what exactly was Todd Fields tripping on when he cast this stunning goddess as a homely housewife? Had she donned a Monster-style fat suit, Winslet, the perennial Oscar bridesmaid, might be the one to beat. If there’s anything that the Academy loves more than a pretty girl, it’s a pretty girl feigning ugly.

JS You really think Winslet feigned ugly? I think she feigned normal, which she’s always been the poster femme for: the curvaceous egg-head sex symbol. That’s the problem with her Little Children performance: retread; we’re already on board, and I’m sorry but frumpy overalls only make her hotter. Kate Winslet’s going to need to do a drastic about-face to win an Oscar, and considering her track record, she’s running out of ways to impress people. I mean, really, what’s it going to take for the most dependable actress on the planet? I feel the same way about Maggie Gyllenhaal: she’s so singular and interesting in every single thing she’s been in (Secretary, Sherrybaby, Stranger than Fiction), and yet her dependably eclectic choices aren’t winning her any new fans or bringing her any closer to a nomination, let alone a win. Laura Dern? I don’t think anybody who sat through Inland Empire will want to see her face again, let alone near a podium.

ANDREW

PREDICTION: Helen Mirren, The Queen

PREFERENCE: Penelope Cruz, Volver

JOSH

PREDICTION: Helen Mirren, The Queen

PREFERENCE: Judi Dench, Notes On a Scandal

_____________________________________________________

BEST ACTOR

JS I think we have to put one thing in perspective: Forest Whitaker is not an attractive man. He’s fat and his eyes do this weird Quasimodo thing that at this point he has grown into to a fair degree, but as a teenager? You don’t want that going on. Basically, Forest was the fat, deformed-looking kid, who has made it solid enough to work on maybe five or six different sets a year. You locking in on that vision of the man? That’s why his speeches are death on camera. Maybe he hasn’t really had the time to reflect on his newfound success; maybe he genuinely is caught off-guard by all these hosannas, although after winning every critic’s citation across the board, a Golden Globe, and a Screen Actor’s Guild trophy for his work in The Last King of Scotland, at this point the man has no excuse not to write something down with his stubby little fingers. Me? I just wish the fates would make it easy on the guy and allot his sweep to Ryan Gosling.

AD I’ll second that. This is like a game of The Good, The Bad, and the Ugly. The Good is Gosling, who gives a subtle, magnetic performance I never thought the Academy would go for. The Bad is DiCaprio, in for Blood Diamond instead of his searing, career-best work in The Departed. And The Ugly? Why, that would be Forest Whitaker, not because of that “weird Quasimodo thing,” but rather because his performance illuminates the ugly truth about what America wants out of black male actors. The seasoned vet laughs uproariously, bellows frequently, and stomps around with reckless abandon: it’s a broad burlesque show, what critic Armond White has called just “another scary black man stereotype,” and scared-shitless award-voters are eating it up. The Last King of Scotland also has a veneer of social importance, so those members of the Academy drowning in liberal guilt will find plenty to like too.  I’d love to see Whitaker win an Oscar—he’s been delivering strong, nuanced work since his breakthrough, Bird—but not this way.

JS The only thing I hate more than Armond White is Armond White when he’s right. I would love to chalk these African-American Oscar wins (few and far between, all of them) to happenstance, but anything outside of the realm of Caucasian-ego-stroking just isn’t happening. I would argue as well that Will Smith’s corporate ladder-climbing in the 80’s, a path laid down by Reagan himself via television early on, would fall into the same category. I’d like to say though that Will Smith is a very curious case. Ten years now, the man has been an incomparable box office draw, and both of his deserving nominations see him let alone an also-ran, but a barely-mentioned. The Pursuit of Happyness is effective Capra-corn, even if I disagree with its politics, but it derives its power from Smith’s performance, which has been most roundly described as…dignified. White strikes again.

ANDREW

PREDICTION – Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland

PREFERENCE – Ryan Gosling, Half Nelson

JOSH

PREDICTION – Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland

PREFERENCE – Ryan Gosling, Half Nelson

_____________________________________________________

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

AD I’m not sure if it’s possible for me to be less enthused with this category. I’ll admit that, in the current American film culture, roles for women are limited, but that’s no excuse for the mediocrity of these nominees. I’ve got nothing against that adorable tyke from Little Miss Sunshine—her performance is probably the best in the movie—but what about the rest? In Notes on a Scandal, Blanchett is woefully miscast and shamelessly over-the-top. Is the actress such an awards-season mainstay that voters are willing to shrug off her histrionic overacting and just give her an obligatory spot in the race? If so, they might as well just have nominated her harmless turn in Babel, letting her pointlessly duke it out with those other two while Jennifer Hudson rehearses her final teary-eyed acceptance speech of the season.

JS Remember how outstanding Jamie Foxx’s Golden Globe speech was? And how dull it was the third time in a row? Get ready for more of the same from Forest, Eddie, and Jennifer. Thank goodness Helen Mirren has the decency to go “ass over tits” on the way up to the podium. I’m not sure where I place in this lineup. I think still longing for a nomination for Volver’s Carmen Maura, Stranger than Fiction’s Emma Thompson, or Eva Green, maybe the best Bond babe since Ursula Andress. I resist charges that Jennifer Hudson is supporting on any level considering how blandly subliminal Beyoncé’s performance is in the film, and also that it’s a one song performance. The girl’s got talent; we’ll see how far it takes her without ditties that feel like bland R&B mixed with soulless Motown. I can’t begrudge her inevitable win, but I can’t help but feel that she would be the only nominee capable of usurping a Mirren victory, leaving the road open for Breslin, whose moppet dork contributed more screen direction than Dayton or Faris combined, or maybe Barraza, who found genuine pathos in the overwrought bathos of Babel. Alas, it’s Hudson’s world, and they’re just background grooving in it.

ANDREW

PREDICTION: Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls

PREFERENCE: Abigail Breslin, Little Miss Sunshine

JOSH

PREDICTION: Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls

PREFERENCE: Abigail Breslin, Little Miss Sunshine or Adriana Barraza, Babel

_____________________________________________________

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

JS There is something of a grassroots campaign to stop Eddie Murphy from winning his Academy Award, but before we get to that, let it be known that only twice has the Academy disagreed with the choice of a performer that has won both Globe and SAG. One was Russell Crowe for A Beautiful Mind and the other was Lauren Bacall for The Mirror Has Two Faces. The latter, perhaps, because the role ultimately wasn’t seen as very challenging, or maybe they just didn’t like the film; in Crowe’s case, well, they liked the film just fine, but the man? Russell Crowe is an asshole and so is Eddie Murphy. He’s got a lot of enemies in Hollywood and stands as one of the bitterest L.A. success stories out there. He’s the prohibitive front-runner in a burnt out Oscar-hungry movie, and while he remains the safest bet available, the question is, if not he, who? My money’s on Alan Arkin, but certainly a case could be made for Haley, Hounsou, and (in a perfect world) Wahlberg.

AD Exactly what kind of perfect world are you envisioning where Wahlberg strutting around on a testosterone high calling everyone a fag is worthy of praise? He’s amusing at best in The Departed—why him and not Jack Nicholson, whose turn as, well, Jack Nicholson is funnier and more interesting than anything Marky-Mark does in the film? Whatever. Amusing at best is how I would describe most of these nominees. Murphy has one mean Marvin Gaye number, but mostly he’s just doing Eddie. That won’t stop him from steamrolling the competition here, though I think you’re right about Arkin having an outside shot. More than any other category, Supporting Actor swings toward paying dues to sentimental favorites for their entire body of work; since Arkin has way more goodwill stockpiled up than Murphy, he could sneak in for the steal. But I wouldn’t count on it. Am I only one hoping that Haley’s nominee clip will be his hilarious, third-act hissy-fit? Show of hands?

JS First off, smart guy, the best supporting performance in The Departed is sweaty-pitted Alec Baldwin, tossing off one-liners without missing a beat. Mark Wahlburg’s performance is terrific, a real ball-busting Southie, perfectly one-dimensional. Both Damon and DiCaprio orbit Jack, a feat from which The Departed derives much of its power, but he’s there for the paycheck and the craft services and it shows. There’s a profane beauty to his breathless peevish delivery, and if I side with Wahlburg over Arkin, it’s that the latter actor’s sudden (*cough*) departure never gives the talented actor (who sorely deserves his Oscar. For Thirteen Conversations About One Thing) to transcend the limitations of his archetypal character: potty-mouthed Grandpa. He comes close though, and he’d be my close 2^nd pick. But I’d invite you to step the fuck off in saying anything negative about Marky Mark. As for Murphy, there are ample shades of Sherman Klump in his Buddy Love, so I can’t begrudge his nomination, or in (to me) a rather weak field a win, though his front-runner status seems destined for usurpation, maybe by Arkin. I don’t really see Hounsou having a chance. And Jackie Earle Haley’s raw nerve of a performance? I maintain that he didn’t know he was in Little Children, and was filmed on the spot, Truman Show-style. But hey, it’s good for his career, so who’s he to fight it?

ANDREW

PREDICTION: Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls

PREFERENCE: Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine

JOSH

PREDICTION – Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls

PREFERENCE – Mark Wahlberg, The Departed

_____________________________________________________

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

JS For me, my favorite category, year-in and year-out, almost always the films I can relate to and find the most kinship in. This year though, I find myself rather un-partisaned, perhaps because the steamroller seems so uninteresting. Will the winner be Michael Arndt, claiming over 100 drafts for Little Miss Sunshine only to see it fall prey to easy narrative disjoint, or pedigreed screenwriter phenom Peter Morgan for The Queen, and win every single critic’s award plus a Globe for his fantastically competent structuring. I couldn’t be less ecstatic about either, nor Guillermo Arriaga, whose persistence in writing the same heavy-handed ensemble work is bound to inspire player hating from his fellow WGA card-carriers (and not undeservingly so). What are we left with? Paul Haggis scored his third nomination in a row for his dubious Story By credit on Letters from Iwo Jima, but while screenwriting credit goes to Iris Yamashita, one can’t help but pick through this admittedly fantastic piece of writing for Haggis-isms (an American mother’s letter to her son; grievous moral dilemmas involving dogs). Guillermo Del Toro’s Pan’s Labyrinth would seem more a triumph of directing, but really his is a triumph of sweaty fan-boy paneling rather than patient craftsmanship. Either of the latter is good for me, though neither have a chance.

AD This happens to be my favorite category too (must be a writer thing) so I find it rather depressing to be staring down such a ho-hum list of nominated scripts. 2006 was actually a terrific year for original screenplays—Brick, anyone?—which makes these mostly middlebrow selections all the more agitating. I echo your sentiments about Little Miss Sunshine, The Queen, and Babel, all of which are over-praised, yet too modestly competent to inspire anything more in me than mild disapproval. Each of them has a viable chance of winning here, though I think the contrived hi-jinks and we-are-family sermonizing of Sunshine puts it slightly ahead of The Queen, with its stodgy politicking, and Babel, with its forced connections and muddled themes. To these eyes, Guillermo del Toro’s screenplay is the weakest thing about Pan’s Labyrinth: he fails to weave together the story’s disparate realities, resulting in a fantasy that’s as tonally dissonant as it is frequently engrossing. Letters wins by default. A solemn eulogy for the victims of Iwo Jima, Yamashita’s script, while occasionally didactic, dramatizes the futility of war with insight and dignity.

JS There’s nothing stodgy about The Queen’s politicking. It’s a deft, funny, and effortlessly explanatory piece of writing once a certain scene with a stag is omitted. Stodgy politicking? What does that even mean? How does that even apply? Do you even know? What politicks in The Queen are stodged-up? I’m tempted to not even continue the line of logic you set up. But then you started talking shit about Pan’s Labyrinth and I have to. The issue I have with Pan’s Labyrinth is that Guillermo Del Toro does not allow for a sense of discovery; we are never entirely with Ofelia as she encounters these goose-pimply oddities, but behind her or in front of her. We never get to go down the hallway on the way to the Pale Man or crawl into the Frog Lair. We’re just tossed there with not time for wonder. As for his screenwriting, I’m fine without further integration, as it’s not the story he is telling. At least it doesn’t fall prey to stodgy politicking.

ANDREW

PREDICTION: Little Miss Sunshine

PREFERENCE: Letters From Iwo Jima

JOSH

PREDICTION: Little Miss Sunshine

PREFERENCE: Pan’s Labyrinth

_____________________________________________________

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

AD Now here’s a puzzling slate of contenders. Putting aside my misgivings about a couple of the more conventional choices (i.e. the retrograde, lesbian camp thriller and American Beauty 2: Bring On the Pedophiles), I’m still a bit baffled by these nominees. Sure, Borat is a gas, but even the blatantly staged bits were likely improvised, not written. And as much as I love Children of Men, let’s be real: the script is functional at best, a mere skeletal blueprint for Alfonso Cuarón and Co. to build off of.

JS I’m a bit shocked that Condon wasn’t nominated for Dreamgirls and Jason Reitman was left out for Thank You for Smoking, not because either one was a model of narrative efficiency, but that they seem so much more on the Academy’s level that…well…Borat. Nonetheless, this is one of the few categories where the nominees need not be announced before the winner. Monahan takes this one for his adaptation of Infernal Affairs, as he should, and all quibbling that a remake has never won in this category is bollocks. A different year perhaps, but The Departed is so clearly in a class of its own, a movie that leaves your head dizzy with twists well earned. He’s a screenwriter wunderkind who proved his price tag (he’s a long way from Troy, right here).

AD The Departed isn’t just a great script, it’s a great adaptation. Monahan expands and improves upon the (already impressive) source material, giving it a new context and a new flavor, making it his own. Can the other nominees lay claim to such an achievement? Todd Fields sure can’t. He exposes his sad literary pretensions with Little Children, which features dreadful voice-over narration plucked directly from Tom Perrotta’s novel. Fields summarizes, explains, and condescends—I’m truly mystified as to how other writers could be duped into nominating this synthetic claptrap. Best Adapted Screenplay? More like second-rate CliffsNotes.

ANDREW

PREDICTION & PREFERENCE: William Monahan, The Departed

JOSH

PREDICTION & PREFERENCE: William Monahan, The Departed

_____________________________________________________

BEST DIRECTOR

JS Is this Marty’s year? Is it finally Marty’s year? Will it ever be Marty’s year? Take a glance at the middle-aged New Yawker’s DGA victory photo-op and tell me he won’t be making that face. Of course it’s Marty’s year, but rather than sigh in exasperation that finally the dog will have his day, let’s reflect casually on the fact that on this, his sixth nomination and eventual first win, Martin Scorsese will have won for work that holds with his best. Both George Cukor and William Wyler won on their sixth, for My Fair Lady and Ben-Hur respectively. I sincerely doubt either master would consider those films among the best in their canon, nor Polanski of The Pianist, Bertolucci of The Last Emperor, or Carol Reed of Oliver! The Departed is not on the same personal level as Goodfellas or Raging Bull, but Scorsese can rest assured that on this occasion he has the rare distinction of being honored for both The Man and His Work. The closest runner up will be Clint Eastwood, although he failed a citation from the Director’s Guild of America, a handicap that has never been overcome in the history of the Academy awards. But really the only energy that needs expending is asking one’s self, which is more distasteful: the anonymous worker-man nomination for Stephen Frears or the distasteful puppeteering of Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu.

AD Your answer: Frears, if only because it’s disheartening to see this once exciting filmmaker play it safe and churn out competent, mannered, BBC-ready fare like The Queen and last year’s Mrs. Henderson Presents. I’m only modestly scornful of Innaritu, who has genuine talent but needs to stop making the same movie over and over again. His relentless, suffocating cynicism is also beginning to wear thin. Incidentally, I did call Greengrass getting in. Last year notwithstanding, the Director’s Branch has a commendable habit of slipping a wild card into this race. Since United 93—the critics’ choice for Movie of the Year, it would seem—was just a little too bleak and a little too un-commercial to make the Best Picture cut, Paul should consider the nomination his consolation prize. I admire his proficiency, but would trade him out in a heartbeat for Alfonso Cuaron or (fat chance) David Lynch. Regardless, this is Marty’s year, and, as you’ve pointed out, he really does deserve it. Gangs Of New York was compulsively watchable but inherently flawed, while The Aviator was a slick, controlled bit of Hollywood craftsmanship. By contrast, The Departed peerlessly balances Scorsese’s kinetic, old school filmmaking instincts against his maturing artistic sensibilities—the best of both worlds, a mid-career renaissance piece from an old pro who still thinks like a hungry novice.

JS One can only hope. I can’t wait to see Scorsese’s Silence, about two Jesuit priests traveling to 17^th century Japan. His upcoming Theodore Roosevelt, however…I think he and DiCaprio should leave their collaboration on a high note. And there’s nothing little about how un-commercial or bleak United 93 is. Its two nominations are a major coup for the film’s longevity.

ANDREW

PREDICTION & PREFERENCE – Martin Scorsese, The Departed

JOSH

PREDICTION & PREFERENCE – Martin Scorsese, The Departed

_____________________________________________________

BEST PICTURE

AD Last year’s crop of Best Picture nominees were unusually strong and unconventional—Josh, if you curb your issues with Crash, I’ll curb mine with Capote, and we can agree that it wasn’t a half-bad list of films. On paper, this year’s race looks offbeat, but it’s really just the usual mix of over-hyped indie “edge” (Babel), crowd-pleasing fluff (Little Miss Sunshine), and solemn reverence (The Queen and Letters From Iwo Jima)—with one violent, profane, exhilarating firecracker thrown in for good measure. Ignoring, for a brief moment, the actual quality of the movies, how utterly, excitingly unpredictable is this race? For the first time in years, there is no front-runner here: any one of these five films could conceivably win!

JS I’m no fan of Crash, and yet it breaks my heart to think that this year’s winner could be even worse. A work of anonymous ensemble orchestrated by a cruel puppet-master with a boner for human suffering vs. a road comedy that flounders when they take off on the road? What planet am I on? I’m going to predict that the latter, Little Miss Sunshine, will take the prize on the sole basis that there is very little going against it. It’s a movie that makes the Academy feel hip: voting for an indie movie that was never truly independent to start with. Then again, Babel certainly appears to be about something beneath the surface, a handjob for any liberal voter. I’m more enthusiastic about Letters from Iwo Jima than you, but I think we can both agree that the cheese stands alone. In my mind, The Departed would make for the best Oscar winner since Unforgiven, a fantastic genre film elevated to art.

AD I’d agree with you were it not for Clint Eastwood’s other Best Picture winner—The Departed is a rush, but it doesn’t pack the wallop of Million Dollar Baby. Still, point well taken: in this motley group of competitors, Scorsese’s crime opus stands out like a shark in a fish bowl. But does it have what it takes to win? It might be too violent, just as Little Miss Sunshine might be too light, The Queen might be too British, and Babel might be too love-it-or-hate-it divisive. That leaves Letters From Iwo Jima, yet another Best Picture contender from Clint and the little war movie that everyone counted out of the running. It was a surprise nominee, but now that’s in, voters are going to watch it, and I think they’re going to be bowed over by what they see. I don’t love the film: strip away the subtitles and you’ve got an austere but fairly conventional war movie. Yet given the alternatives—especially that nattering sitcom pilot on wheels—we could do worse than Letters From Iwo Jima. Like, say, imagine if Dreamgirls got that fifth spot instead…

ANDREW

PREDICTION: Letters From Iwo Jima

PREFERENCE: The Departed

JOSH

PREDICTION: Little Miss Sunshine

BEST SCORE

It seems like this year’s nominees were nominated for the wrong scores. Desplat for The Queen rather than The Painted Veil, Philip Glass for Notes on a Scandal over The Illusionist, Thomas Newman for The Good German instead of Little Children. In a just world, the tragic lullaby of Pan’s Labyrinth would come out on top, but Alexandre Desplat gave drive to the overly stately The Queen and should top Gustavo Santaolalla’s work in Babel, which derives too strongly from previously composed work.

PREDICTION: The Queen

PREFERENCE: Pan’s Labyrinth

_____________________________________________________

BEST SONG

With neither Randy Newman’s “Our Town” nor Melissa Etheridge’s “I Need to Wake Up” staking much claim in the category, which of the three from Dreamgirls? Eddie Murphy’s Marvin Gaye turn in “Patience” had more soul, Hudson’s “Love You I Do” was more a plot point, but “Listen” has the airplay.

PREDICTION: “Listen”, Dreamgirls

PREFERENCE: “Patience”, Dreamgirls

_____________________________________________________

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

With not a single Best Picture nominee in the lot, the Academy is freed up to be off-beat, innovative, and downright cool. A genuinely reviled movie (The Black Dahlia), the year’s two magician picks (The Illusionist & The Prestige), a geekily baroque fantasia (Pan’s Labyrinth), and the year’s canonic orgasm of cinematography, Emmanuel Lubeszki’s mind-melting ten minute tracking shots in Children of Men, which is fortunate enough to have two other nominations going for it.

PREDICTION & PREFERENCE: Children of Men

_____________________________________________________

BEST FILM EDITING

In this category, the Academy usually favors the epic (Return of the King, The Aviator), the ensembles (Traffic, Crash), or the film which can be almost entirely credited to the editor to make the movie coherent (Black Hawk Down, Chicago). No epics this year, leaving United 93 as the latter, Babel for the middle, and The Departed with its toes in both pools, and ultimately perhaps the cross-cutting squeaker winner.

PREDICTION & PREFERENCE: The Departed

_____________________________________________________

BEST ART DIRECTION

Remembering that Sleepy Hollow took down its period-piece rivals in this category seven years ago, I give the gothic flourishes of Pan’s Labyrinth a slight edge over the empty razzle-dazzle of Dreamgirls.

PREDICTION & PREFERENCE: Pan’s Labyrinth

_____________________________________________________

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Marie Antoinette seriously deserves this one—what is the film but a gorgeous and elaborate fashion show?—but voters will probably give it up to the flashy, Motown duds of Dreamgirls.

PREDICTION: Dreamgirls

PREFERENCE: Marie Antoinette

_____________________________________________________

BEST ANIMATED FILM

Believe it or not, Cars is the year’s second biggest money-maker after Dead Man’s Chest. PIXAR has only lost this award once (the charming Monsters, Inc. to the first Shrek), and while Cars took the first ever Golden Globe for Best Animated Film, Happy Feet was the smash of the fall, even besting James Bond himself.

PREDICTION: Happy Feet

PREFERENCE: Monster House

_____________________________________________________

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

With Volver mystifyingly out of the picture and five other nominations to its credit, Pan’s Labyrinth seems like the safest bet. However, let it be known that The Lives of Others is a fantastic film with sleeper potential. The Foreign-Language branch could end up making a statement, by eclipsing Pan’s under the assumption that it can get its worth somewhere else. Write down Pan’s in pencil.

PREDICTION: Pan’s Labyrinth

PREFERENCE: The Lives of Others

_____________________________________________________

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Shamefully, neither Josh nor myself have seen more than one of these films. Important and relevant, yet cinematically unremarkable, An Inconvenient Truth is your winner here. Since I can’t put up any opposition against it, I’m forced to sit this one out.

PREDICTION: An Inconvenient Truth

PREFERENCE: ABSTAIN

_____________________________________________________

BEST MAKE-UP

As funny as it would be to see Click win (look! Adam Sandler’s old!), there’s no denying the awesome latex grotesqueries of Pan’s Labyrinth.

PREDICTION & PREFERENCE: Pan’s Labyrinth

_____________________________________________________

BEST SOUND MIXING

Recently, this category has turned into a battle between loud action movies (like last year’s winner, King Kong) and music movies (like 2004’s champ, Ray). It’s a tough call, but I’m putting my money on the music.

PREDICTION: Dreamgirls

PREFERENCE: Flags of Our Fathers

_____________________________________________________

BEST SOUND EFFECTS

This category is entirely predicated on the literal creation of inorganic sounds, which Apocalypto and Blood Diamond have seemingly no stake in. Flags is louder, Pirates is more fantastical, but Letters has the Best Picture pedigree plus that echo gunfire.

PREDICTION & PREFERENCE: Letters from Iwo Jima

_____________________________________________________

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Nobody likes a dud, which cancels Poseidon and Superman Returns out, both Warner Bros. films. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest saw the Kraken, Davy Jones’ ship, and Bill Nighy’s inimitable Mr. Jones himself. An FX award for The Curse of the Black Pearl, and a good one at that.

PREDICTION & PREFERENCE: Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest